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2024-12-14 12:36:34

Now the market pricing power is still in the hands of hot money+quantification+retail investors. Hot money pulls demon stocks, robots, AI and other themes every day, and it's fun to play; Quantifying the direction of pulling small-cap stocks and low-priced stocks every day also earns a lot of money. The institution is very embarrassed, and it is still in the negative cycle of locking up-redemption-selling to deal with redemption-continuing to lock up. Occasionally, one day, the institutions will explode and usher in a greater redemption. They can only continue to sell and bear the stigma of smashing the plate.In January and September, the K-line is a Dayang line that runs through five lines, which is called the dragon going out to sea, which is a strong rising signal of the trend turning point;The current position of the market is in the circle. Generally speaking, when the market starts to rise, it is always unconscious to most people, because many people are aware of it after seeing the facts. It used to be said that stock trading is "seven-point mentality, two-point technology and one-point luck". I think this statement is correct, but in A shares, it is more accurate to change the mentality to policy+mentality. Although the stock markets all over the world are policy markets, A shares are more obvious.


In January and September, the K-line is a Dayang line that runs through five lines, which is called the dragon going out to sea, which is a strong rising signal of the trend turning point;Before September, the market has always been a high dividend for defense and hedging, and the market is specially estimated. The incremental fund is the national team; Since the end of September, the market has been the mainstream theme, with low price and small ticket style. The incremental funds are new investors entering the market and old investors recharging.After-hours, personal pension will be expanded to broad-based index products, which is the China version of 401k! At present, there are about 65 million people opening personal pension accounts in China. If the average person pays 6,000 yuan a year, the annual deposit scale is about 150 billion yuan, which is a great incremental fund. If people can make money steadily for a long time, more people will buy personal pensions (tax deductible), thus promoting the slow growth of the stock market.


As soon as the data came out, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December rose to 97.7%, and there was basically no suspense! The fed's continued interest rate cuts will naturally help our monetary policy to be more relaxed, which is good for the big A!After-hours, personal pension will be expanded to broad-based index products, which is the China version of 401k! At present, there are about 65 million people opening personal pension accounts in China. If the average person pays 6,000 yuan a year, the annual deposit scale is about 150 billion yuan, which is a great incremental fund. If people can make money steadily for a long time, more people will buy personal pensions (tax deductible), thus promoting the slow growth of the stock market.If you can't, it means that the winning rate of every small decision you make is not high. Small decisions with low winning rate will be amplified by high-frequency operation, and the result is that the more you do, the more mistakes you make. Therefore, retail investors want to make money through high-frequency decision-making to predict the market, and the probability of success is doomed to be very low, and they can't make a few money. The short-term market is almost a pure game market, but in the long run, the stock price will always fluctuate around the intrinsic value, even a shares are no exception.

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